Total outcomes when a fair coin is tossed 3 times:
\[ n(S) = 2^3 = 8 \]
Event \(A\): exactly 2 heads = {HHT, HTH, THH}
\[ |A| = 3 \]
Event \(B\): at most 2 tails = all outcomes except {TTT}
\[ |B| = 7 \]
Since every outcome of \(A\) (two heads ⇒ one tail) is included in \(B\), we have:
\[ A \subseteq B \;\;\Rightarrow\;\; A \cup B = B \]
Therefore:
\[ P(A \cup B) = P(B) = \frac{|B|}{8} = \frac{7}{8} \]
Final Answer:
\[ \boxed{\tfrac{7}{8}} \]
Step 1: Define events.
Let:
• A = ball drawn from Bag A
• B = ball drawn from Bag B
• R = ball drawn is Red
Since a bag is chosen at random: $$P(A) = P(B) = \tfrac{1}{2}$$
Step 2: Probability of Red from each bag.
• From Bag A:
$$P(R|A) = \tfrac{3}{3+4} = \tfrac{3}{7}$$
• From Bag B:
$$P(R|B) = \tfrac{5}{5+6} = \tfrac{5}{11}$$
Step 3: Total probability of Red.
$$P(R) = P(A)P(R|A) + P(B)P(R|B)$$
$$= \tfrac{1}{2}\cdot\tfrac{3}{7} + \tfrac{1}{2}\cdot\tfrac{5}{11}$$
$$= \tfrac{3}{14} + \tfrac{5}{22}$$
$$= \tfrac{33}{154} + \tfrac{35}{154} = \tfrac{68}{154} = \tfrac{34}{77}$$
Step 4: Apply Bayes’ Theorem.
$$P(B|R) = \frac{P(B)P(R|B)}{P(R)}$$
$$= \frac{\tfrac{1}{2}\cdot\tfrac{5}{11}}{\tfrac{34}{77}}$$
$$= \frac{5}{22} \cdot \frac{77}{34} = \frac{385}{748}$$
$$= \tfrac{35}{68}$$
Correct Probability: $\tfrac{35}{68}$
Answer: Option 1
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